CEPR Discussion paper We show that, on average, both agglomeration and the cluster policy are associated with a higher survival probability of firms on export markets, and conditioning on survival, a higher growth rate of their exports. However, these effects are not stronger during the crisis. The negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship.
A simple model shows that exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers in destinations in crisis by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes. For those with longer shipping time, this is magnified as the default probability increases with time. Some exporters also decide to stop exporting the more so the longer time-to-ship. Using aggregate data we show that this magnification effect is very robust. We test the firm-level results on French exporter data and find that they are broadly consistent with our predictions. Journal of International Economics.
Volume 89, Issue 1, Pages , January lead article. We revisit the classic transfer problem, accounting for two channels of adjustment: Over the medium term, the latter reduces the scope for real exchange rate and terms of trade variability in response to cross-border flows. Simulation exercises based on data suggest that a transfer of the size of the pre-crisis U. These are particularly vulnerable to a banking crisis in the countries they export to. For African exporters the fall in trade relative to gravity is around 15 percentage points higher than for other countries in the aftermath of a banking crisis.
We analyze several possible causes of this vulnerability. Macroeconomics, , 4 4: In addition to standard trade gains, regional trade agreements RTAs can promote peaceful relations by increasing the opportunity cost of conflicts.
Country-pairs with large trade gains from RTAs and a high probability of conflict should be more likely to sign a RTA. Using data from to , we show that this complementarity between economics and politics determines the geography of RTAs. We disentangle trade gains from political factors by a theory-driven empirical estimation and find that country pairs with higher frequency of past wars are more likely to sign RTAs, the more so the larger the trade gains. See column in VOX.
An appendix is here. We analyze the heterogenous reaction of exporters to real exchange rate changes using a very rich French firm-level dataset with destination-specific export values and volumes on the period High-performance firms react to a depreciation by increasing more their markup and by increasing less their export volume. This heterogeneity in pricing-to-market is consistent with models where the demand elasticity decreases with firm performance.
Since aggregate exports are concentrated on high performance firms heterogenous pricing-to-market may partly explain the weak aggregate impact of exchange rate movements. We analyze empirically a public policy promoting industrial clusters in France. We use firm-level data on production and employment for firms that benefited from the policy and on firms that did not, both before and after the policy started.
The policy selected firms in sectors and regions in relative decline and did not succeed in reversing the relative decline in productivity for the targeted firms.
The policy had no robust effect on employment or exports. We analyze the effect of spatial agglomeration of activities on plant-level productivity, using French firm and plant-level data We exploit short-run variations of variables by making use of GMM estimation. This allows us to control for endogeneity biases that the estimation of agglomeration economies typically encounters. French plants benefit from localization economies and these are relatively well internalized by firms in their location choice: Despite the liberalization of capital flows among OECD countries, equity home bias remains sizable.
The interaction of the following ingredients generates a realistic equity home bias: In our model, domestic stocks are used to hedge fluctuations in local wage income. Terms of trade risk is hedged using bonds denominated in local and foreign goods. In contrast to related models, the low level of international diversification does not depend on strongly countercyclical terms of trade.
Insiders and outsiders ", , with Nicolas Coeurdacier. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies. Volume 3, issue 2, pages , June. We find evidence that the euro has implied 1 a unilateral financial liberalization which makes it cheaper for all countries to buy euro zone assets. University of Chicago Press. NBER working paper This paper explains three key stylized facts observed in industrialized countries: We present a two-country, two-good model with trade in stocks and bonds, and three types of disturbances: With these shocks, optimal international portfolios are shown to be consistent with the stylized facts.
We analyze the relationship between civil wars and international trade. Trade destruction due to civil wars is very large and persistent.
We analyze empirically a public policy promoting industrial clusters in France. We test the firm-level results on French exporter data and find that they are broadly consistent with our predictions. This brief should be aimed for a policy maker. This paper analyzes the international transmission and welfare implications of productivity gains and changes in market size when macroeconomic adjustment occurs both along the intensive margin of trade changes in the relative price of existing varieties of tradable goods and the extensive margin creation and destruction of varieties. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies. Les hommes du destin. Revue bleue, 16 mars
We identify two effects that trade can have on the risk of civil conflicts: We find support for the presence of these two mechanisms and conclude that trade openness may deter the most severe civil wars those that destroy the largest amount of trade but may increase the risk of lower scale conflicts. We analyse theoretically and empirically the relationship between military conflicts and trade. We show that the conventional wisdom that trade promotes peace is only partially true even in a model where trade is economically beneficial, military conflicts reduce trade, and leaders are rational.
When war can occur because of the presence of asymmetric information, the probability of escalation is lower for countries that trade more bilaterally because of the opportunity cost associated with the loss of trade gains. However, countries more open to global trade have a higher probability of war because multilateral trade openness decreases bilateral dependence to any given country and the cost of a bilateral conflict. We test our predictions on a large data set of military conflicts on the — period.
We find robust evidence for the contrasting effects of bilateral and multilateral trade openness.
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This paper analyzes the international transmission and welfare implications of productivity gains and changes in market size when macroeconomic adjustment occurs both along the intensive margin of trade changes in the relative price of existing varieties of tradable goods and the extensive margin creation and destruction of varieties. We draw a distinction between productivity gains that enhance manufacturing efficiency and gains that lower the cost of firms' entry and of product differentiation.
Countries with lower manufacturing costs have higher GDP but supply their products at lower international prices. Instead, countries with lower entry costs supply a larger array of goods at improved terms of trade. With or without Crash? His main fields of research are: He wrote 53 publications papers, contributions in collective books and books. Since , he organizes conferences about ten a year and round-tables two or three a year on the link between geopolitics and economics in an region or a country.
There were round-tables on Africa , India , Russia , China She has been a visiting academic at the University of Cambridge in Her past and previous research interests include alternative financing for development, the role of private sector in development and the geo-politics of the Global South.
Catherine Laffineur is a postdoctoral fellow at em lyon business school. She holds a master degree in development economics and a PhD in international economics from the University of Paris-Dauphine. She taught different classes in the development economics department of Paris-Dauphine University, especially on the role of foreign direct investment on labor market inequality.
Her research interests include economics of entrepreneurship in some developing countries and international economics. He has been a researcher at Maison Franco-Japonaise , Tokyo. His research focuses on the Japanese economy; diversity of capitalism; heterogeneity of firms; industrial dynamics, and inequalities. Recent publications include a research monograph: The Politics of Economic Restructuring in India.
Thierry Pairault is socio-economist and sinologist.
He is specialized on the study of the economies of China and Taiwan. His researches are currently focusing on Sino-African and Sino-Mediterranean economic relations. He has published numerous books and articles in learned journals on socio-economic issues related to China.
D in International relations from Sciences Po Paris Les Indes savants, forthcoming. Specialized in African history and archaeology.